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Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints

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Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints

Auteurs : Nuno Rodrigues Faria [Belgique] ; Marc A. Suchard [États-Unis] ; Andrew Rambaut [Royaume-Uni, États-Unis] ; Daniel G. Streicker [États-Unis] ; Philippe Lemey [Belgique]

Source :

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B [ 0962-8436 ] ; 2013.

RBID : ISTEX:02EB45C4C8B59AEBADBBB8AA28003A0EEE644D97

Abstract

The factors that determine the origin and fate of cross-species transmission events remain unclear for the majority of human pathogens, despite being central for the development of predictive models and assessing the efficacy of prevention strategies. Here, we describe a flexible Bayesian statistical framework to reconstruct virus transmission between different host species based on viral gene sequences, while simultaneously testing and estimating the contribution of several potential predictors of cross-species transmission. Specifically, we use a generalized linear model extension of phylogenetic diffusion to perform Bayesian model averaging over candidate predictors. By further extending this model with branch partitioning, we allow for distinct host transition processes on external and internal branches, thus discriminating between recent cross-species transmissions, many of which are likely to result in dead-end infections, and host shifts that reflect successful onwards transmission in the new host species. Our approach corroborates genetic distance between hosts as a key determinant of both host shifts and cross-species transmissions of rabies virus in North American bats. Furthermore, our results indicate that geographical range overlap is a modest predictor for cross-species transmission, but not for host shifts. Although our evolutionary framework focused on the multi-host reservoir dynamics of bat rabies virus, it is applicable to other pathogens and to other discrete state transition processes.

Url:

https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/V84-BR518N1J-L/fulltext.pdf

DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2012.0196

Affiliations:

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Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract">The factors that determine the origin and fate of cross-species transmission events remain unclear for the majority of human pathogens, despite being central for the development of predictive models and assessing the efficacy of prevention strategies. Here, we describe a flexible Bayesian statistical framework to reconstruct virus transmission between different host species based on viral gene sequences, while simultaneously testing and estimating the contribution of several potential predictors of cross-species transmission. Specifically, we use a generalized linear model extension of phylogenetic diffusion to perform Bayesian model averaging over candidate predictors. By further extending this model with branch partitioning, we allow for distinct host transition processes on external and internal branches, thus discriminating between recent cross-species transmissions, many of which are likely to result in dead-end infections, and host shifts that reflect successful onwards transmission in the new host species. Our approach corroborates genetic distance between hosts as a key determinant of both host shifts and cross-species transmissions of rabies virus in North American bats. Furthermore, our results indicate that geographical range overlap is a modest predictor for cross-species transmission, but not for host shifts. Although our evolutionary framework focused on the multi-host reservoir dynamics of bat rabies virus, it is applicable to other pathogens and to other discrete state transition processes.</div>
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Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints

Simultaneously reconstructing viral cross-species transmission history and identifying the underlying constraints

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